Think the coloring for success is wrong...?

[musical74]

This has probably been discussed before but I know it goes Green (guaranteed success) > blue > black > red > purple (highly unlikely you will succeed) for a given chance of success. However, I seem to screw up just as much on the *blue* choices as I do on the red - actually, I seem to be MORE successful on the red choices then the blue ones! Is this just a case of I'm not expecting red to succeed so I'm more aware when it succeeds, is the blue less likely than I think, or what? My assumption is that blue has a 75% chance of success, black is around 50%, red 25% and purple about 1% - is this accurate? Given my luck, I'd say red is around 40-50%, blue seems to be more like 30%...do the Academagia gods/goddesses enjoy playing havoc with chance?

[Adrian]

I don't know the exact limits of the colorations, so I'd be interested in that as well, as for how it feels...

 

I'm tempted to say that it is likely one of the most common issues with probability, as you note yourself. Subjectivity; On a blue 25% of the time I always fail. In addition you likely pick more blue rolls than red, which skews the record; I have failed 4 time with blue but only 3 times with red, but I did 4 red tries and 16 blue. Before you behead me I'm just saying what I see when I teach this stuff in class, I am not saying this is the case.

 

With that in mind, shit happens, so what rolls is it that gives you trouble? Adventures? Match wits with the Sphinx? Visiting the Grotto? (Feel free to ignore the smalls smilies it's one of those days)

[Metis]

A blue check is everything from 51% to 99%, and especially early on it'll gravitate towards 51% more so than 99%. Combine that with subjectivity and yes, you'll seem to succeed on red checks more often than blue ones.

[ronikai]

I've had more luck with red rolls rather than blue ones since my first character. I've noticed that if my familiar is also trained in the skill my blue rolls pass more often than the red ones though. So in the end it has a lot to do with random chance and distribution. I've reloaded before and chosen a blue option I just failed only to pass it at the reload

[Metis]

Familiars give a bonus to any given skill roll equal to ½ their rank in the relevant skill, up to a max of ½ their Bond parent skill rank. It's one of the miscellaneous things that the game's color-coding system completely ignores, so given the right situation it's entirely possible for a Familiar to turn a stated purple roll red or even all the way up to green.

 

And I suppose just to clarify, since I imagine it's common knowledge: The game also doesn't save the seed that a given savefile uses at a given time, so reloading does re-seed the RNG and produce different results.